Red Sox vs Yankees. Duke vs North Carolina. Lakers vs Celtics. BYU vs Utah. There are a long list of rivalries in this country that draw media attention every time occur. Most of them happen at least once a year, and in some cases, like with Red Sox/Yankees, can happen 18 times in one year. However, the US National Team only plays Mexico about once per year, if that, and in my opinion, this rivalry is greater than all others in this country.
I don't know where to start with the history of this matchup. From Landon Donovan urinating on Mexico's training fields, to the US triumph over Mexico in the Round of 16 at the 2002 World Cup, to the many battles at Estadio Azteca, these matches never seem to have a dull moment. The last time we were matched up in the Gold Cup was in the 2009 Final, when Mexico absolutely embarrassed the US, 5-0, in New Jersey. The US team looks to exact revenge this Saturday at the Rose Bowl, and book a place in the 2013 Confederations Cup.
8 days ago, the US were facing elimination before a must-win matchup vs Guadaloupe, while Mexico had trounced the likes of Costa Rica, Cuba and El Salvador by an aggregate score of 14-1. At that point, most people saw Mexico as runaway favorites in this tournament. Since then, the US has run off fairly comfortable victories over Guadaloupe, Jamaica and Panama (all while not conceding a goal) to reach the Final. Mexico, on the other hand, struggled to beat Guatemala (2-1) and Honduras (2-0, in extra time). While Mexico are still likely favorites for Saturday, it is much closer than what was seen just over a week ago.
While there are many things that the US has to do right on Saturday, three factors stand out to me:
1) The US must have a good start and keep Mexico scoreless in the first half - Bob Bradley's teams have been known for giving up early chances in matches, and while Howard has saved them on many occasions, an early goal for Mexico could all but put the US team away. This game will be played at the Rose Bowl, and while it is in the US, I wouldn't be surprised to see at least 75% of the stadium filled with the green and black from Mexico. An early goal would send the crowd into a craze, and it would be hard to fight back against the Mexican team, as well as the majority crowd, to win the game.
2) The US back line needs to play better than they have all tournament - While the likes of Bocanegra, Goodson, Lichaj and Cherundolo have played fairly well the entire tournament, they have yet to come up against a strikeforce like Chicharito, Dos Santos, De Nigris, and Guardado. There will be chances in this game, and the creativity of the front line for Mexico will open up the US defense, but we need to minimize those chances, especially the dangerous ones. Howard needs to direct this back line with a strong voice to eliminate any confusion that the front running Mexican side will create. A few classic Tim Howard saves won't hurt, and likely he will be called upon to make them.
3) The US cannot waste their chances in front of goal - We have seen some high quality misses this tournament from Dempsey, Jones and other US players as well. The Mexico defenders are not as good as their front line, and chances will be made by the US going forward, whether it comes right through the middle, or crosses coming in from the wings. However, we cannot afford any big misses, and have to take our chances. Agudelo will likely start alone up top, with Dempsey and Donovan supporting him, and their combination play will create the chances, and hopefully we have got all of our big misses out of our systems.
I think this game calls for goals with Mexico's lethal strikeforce and a weakened back line for Mexico. While a lot could happen, I think this game will go to extra time at 1-1, and then the US will snatch a winner through Landon Donovan. 2-1 to the Yanks.
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